Uncertainty vs. Risk
Definition
Uncertainty vs. Risk is a conceptual distinction, articulated by Yuen Yuen Ang, to differentiate the nature of indeterminacy in complex versus complicated settings. In complicated, machine-like settings, outcomes involve risk, defined as the probability of undesired outcomes that can be estimated and controlled. In complex systems, outcomes involve uncertainty: an open-ended space of possibilities—both negative and positive—that cannot be known in advance and therefore calls for influence over control.
For more details, see glossary entry
Speaking
Y.Y. Ang. Harvard Center for International Development. GEM26: Reimagining International Development, Panel on Orchestrating Economic Transformation: From Local Experiments to National Strategy. 5 May 2026.
Harvard’s post-event blog: Yuen Yuen Ang described the need for what she called “directed improvisation," a model in which government does not simply dictate outcomes but creates the conditions for adaptation and learning. “In the 21st century, we have to confront a new question, which is, what can governments do when they don't know in advance what will work?” she said. “Uncertainty is not a bug. It is a feature."
Public Writing
Y.Y. Ang. “Industrial Policy for an Age of Uncertainty.” Project Syndicate. 25 May 2026.