Peak China
Term
Peak China
Idea Level
Others (China collapse narrative or meme)
Definition
Peak China is a media and policy meme, peaking around 2023-4, that frames China as having passed the height of its rise and entered a phase of decline that renders it more dangerous.
Yuen Yuen Ang critiques “peak China” as a one-sided, Western-centered reading of China: it amplifies China’s vulnerabilities rather than its actual, paradoxical trajectory, and reflects America’s relative confidence at the time the meme circulated. Against this narrative, Ang advances an alternative observation—China’s Economic Paradox—the coexistence of a persistent growth slowdown and an impressive tech boom under Xi Jinping’s leadership.
Sources
Ang, Y.Y. (2024). “China’s Economic Paradox.” Project Syndicate, 4 September 2024.
Interview articulation:
Ang, Y.Y. (2025). “From ‘Polycrisis’ to ‘Polytunity’.” South China Morning Post, 28 July 2025.
Ang, Y.Y. (2026). "AIM: Introduction & Applications." Oxford Development Studies.
Genealogy
[Paradigm] Mechanical, Western-centric thinking
→ [Critique] “Peak China”: one-sided reading of China that amplifies weakness based on Western self-perception, rather than explaining the coexistence of weakness and strength within China
Contrast with
[Paradigm] AIM (Adaptive, Inclusive, Moral Political Economy)
→ [Pillar] Adaptive: holistic rather than snapshot analysis of moving, contradictory systems
→ [Pillar] Moral: attention to positionality; who is explaining China and from whose perspective
→ [Application: Chinese political economy] China’s Economic Paradox: growth slowdown alongside tech boom under Xi’s tech-centered drive
Quotes
American commentary swings from one extreme to another, sometimes within days. In 2024, the talk of the town was ‘peak China’. It was all over the media. Only a few months later in 2025, do you hear anyone talking about it any more? Suddenly, it has disappeared.
What happened? Did the Chinese economy dramatically perk up within five months? No. It has nothing to do with China’s reality. It is only a reflection of America’s self-perception.
Last year, near the end of the [Joe] Biden administration, the US economy was doing well. It bounced back strongly after the pandemic. So there was a great deal of confidence in the US at the time. By comparison, China was struggling with a real estate meltdown and deflation. These problems were real. Set against American confidence, the meme of ‘peak China’ took off – including in Asia.
But in 2025, the situation in America abruptly changed. Pessimism set in, and China appeared scary again.
In short, what people perceive and broadcast can be very different from reality. In this case, the Chinese reality barely nudged, yet American perceptions went from night to day.
— Ang, “From ‘Polycrisis’ to ‘Polytunity’” (2025)
Western observers often view China as either a rising superpower on the cusp of global dominance or a fragile country on the brink of collapse. These contradictory takes amplify only one side of China’s economic trajectory: a tech boom alongside a growth slump.
The ‘peak China’ narrative fails to capture the country’s paradoxical trajectory. Trumpeting only China’s vulnerabilities, it trumpets the fear that Chinese leaders will take military risks, which the US must counter.
— Ang, “China’s Economic Paradox” (2024)
(3) Moral: Objectivity requires confronting power, not denying it.
Power asymmetry is most entrenched when it hides behind claims of neutrality: Western histories became universal stories; Western metrics became global yardsticks; Western cases defined the canon. AIM rejects such feigned neutrality. Its brand of Moral Political Economy (MPE) maintains that true objectivity lies in being transparent about how power shapes ideas.
— Ang, AIM
Concept Constellation
Across Ang’s work, Peak China co-appears with the following concepts and analytic themes:
Moral political economy / positionality [X]
Snapshots vs. Moving Pictures [X] (method)